Aluminum prices rose 1.1% to ₹252.55 on supply concerns and EU sanctions on Russian aluminum imports.Also, aluminum stocks in LME-registered warehouses have fallen 45% since May 2024, totaling just 619,375 tonnes. More than 60% of canceled warrants indicate that more aluminum could leave LME warehouses in the coming weeks, significantly reducing supply.
This supply reduction has reduced the discount for the cash aluminum contract compared to the three-month contract from more than $40 in December to about $13. On the other hand, aluminum stocks at three major Japanese ports rose 13.2% in December to 323,600 metric tons, which could put pressure on prices. Global aluminum production also continues to rise, with China’s production up 4.13% year-on-year in December. China’s aluminum exports in the first 10 months of 2024 increased by 17% year-on-year, contributing to global supply. Despite these concerns, global refined aluminum had a supply imbalance of 40,300 tons in October, indicating that the market is tight.
