The April 2024/25 wheat outlook shows mixed results for the US and global markets. U.S. wheat supplies are up due to increased imports, the highest since 2017/18, while exports have been revised downward. Domestic use remains nearly unchanged, with minor cuts to seed use.
Consequently, U.S. ending stocks are projected to be 22% higher year-over-year. The season-average farm price remains at $5.50 per bushel. Globally, wheat supplies and trade are expected to decline, particularly due to lowered output from the EU and Saudi Arabia and reduced exports from Russia and Australia.
Despite these drops, global ending stocks are slightly up but remain at their lowest level since 2015/16. Wheat prices show relative stability in the U.S., with the 2024/25 season-average farm price unchanged at $5.50 per bushel. Globally, total wheat supplies are down 0.8 million tons due to cuts in production estimates for Saudi Arabia and the EU, as well as lower beginning stocks in Uzbekistan and Israel.
