India’s sugar production is predicted to decline by 17% in 2024-25, reaching 26.52 million tonnes, according to the All-India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA). This decline is due to adverse weather conditions, diseases in Uttar Pradesh, and lower sugar recovery rates.
Lower closing stocks and reduced carryover sugar could lead to a supply shortage. Consumption is forecasted at 29 million tonnes, with exports at 1 million tonnes. Early closure of mills in Maharashtra and lower crushing capacity also impact production.
The total availability for domestic consumption is projected at 33.5 million tonnes. Sugar production has been impacted by sucrose diversion for ethanol production, with approximately 4 million tonnes of sugar expected to be used this season.
The industry has also seen a decline in operational mills, with 507 mills crushing cane. Despite the challenging production outlook, India’s sugar consumption remains steady at 29 million tonnes, and exports are pegged at 1 million tonnes.