Rupee likely to appreciate on weak dollar, declining oil prices

On Wednesday, the Indian rupee started the day 21paise higher at 82.59 to the dollar due to rising risk on international equities markets, FII inflows, and falling oil prices. “The rupee is likely to strengthen today as a result of the weaker dollar and the upbeat outlook for the world’s financial markets.The expectation that the Fed could scale back its goal to tighten banking conditions as a result of falling inflation helped market sentiment. The rupee would suffer from a rise in crude oil prices.

According to ICICI direct, the US$INR (December) is anticipated to trade in the 82.30 to 82.80 range. Due to ongoing foreign capital outflows from the capital markets, the rupee lost 36paise to settle at 82.87 against the US dollar in the previous session.

“The rupee, in an attempt to breach below 83 yesterday (close to an all-time low) during the Indo-China dispute, has fallen victim to the divergence that seems short-lived, even if the nifty is close to its all-time high, oil prices are lower, and DXY was stable. We can thank the CPI report for subsequently bringing it back to levels close to 82.50. In general, with the overall economic situation looking brighter, the rupee is likely to follow suit and retrace back to levels around 82.00-81.80 in the short to medium term. On the other hand, losses, if any, are likely to be capped near 83.00-83.20 levels, Said Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex Advisors

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