Trade in Soybeans Changes: Brazil Gains Dominance, U.S. Exports Decline

The prediction for U.S. soybeans in 2023–2024 predicts lower ending stockpiles and slower exports as a result of weak shipments and intense competition with Brazil. In comparison to earlier projections, the soybean outlook for the 2023–2024 season in the United States points to a decline in soybean exports and a rise in ending stockpiles. In particular, 1.72 billion bushels of soybean exports are anticipated, which is 35 million fewer than the prediction from the previous month. This decrease is a result of both Brazil’s strong competitive position in the global market and the continuous slowness in exports.

The end stocks are expected to rise to 315 million bushels, up 35 million bushels from the prior projection, despite the crush predictions being unchanged. Because of the lowered export forecasts, this suggests a build-up of excess soybeans. In terms of cost, it is anticipated that the season-average soybean price in the United States for 2023–2024 will be $12.65 a bushel, down $0.10 from the projection the previous month.

Moreover, it is anticipated that the price of soybean oil would drop by 3 cents to 51 cents per pound, while the price of soybean meal will be steady at $380 per short tone. The projections of soybean supply and demand for 2023–2024 also take into account modifications on a global scale. The increase in beginning stocks of 1.7 million tones is mostly attributable to Brazil’s stronger crop predictions for 2022–2023.

Brazil’s production for 2022–2023 is expected to reach 162.0 million tones, a rise of 2.0 million tones due to higher area and yield numbers substantiated by crop year crush and export data. Reduced shipments from the United States account for the majority of the 0.4 million tones drop in global soybean exports for 2023–2024 to 170.6 million tones. The United States and Brazil have the largest stocks, accounting for 1.4 million tones of the total increase in global soybean ending stocks, which stands at 116.0 million tones.

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