Rupee is projected to weaken in the near future and could break through the 85 level in 2023; USDINR will trade in this range.

On Thursday, the Indian Rupee is most likely to weaken due to an increase in the price of crude oil. After data revealed a larger-than-anticipated drop in US crude stockpiles, oil prices surged. A significant decline in the local currency may be avoided, though, due to the dollar’s weakness and the upbeat outlook for the world economy. Additionally, the minutes of the RBI’s monetary policy meeting revealed that governor Das thought rate increases in India should continue. “US$INR (December) is maintaining a firm base near the 82.60 level. The rupee could go down to the level of 83.00 if it maintains above this level, according to ICICIdirect. The rupee lost 10 paise to end the previous session at 82.80 (provisional) against the US dollar due to a sharp decrease in domestic stocks and risk aversion in international stock markets.

“Weak Indian markets and a strong US Dollar led to a 0.03% increase in the value of the Indian Rupee on Wednesday. Concerns concerning an increase of COVID-19 cases in China, some regions of South Asia, and the US caused the Asian markets to fall. After yesterday’s decrease due to safe-haven attraction and growing concerns of a new COVID-19 wave, the dollar also somewhat increased. Due to worsening risk attitudes, an increase in COVID-19 instances, and a minor recovery in the US dollar, we anticipate Rupee to trade with a bearish bias. Increased crude oil prices could put downward pressure on the rupee as well. A range of Rs 82.20 to Rs 83.30 is anticipated for the USDINR spot price, according to Anuj Choudhary, a research analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

“Despite weakening in local markets, rupee volatility remained minimal and it traded in a limited range. After US consumer sentiment exceeded expectations yesterday, the dollar strengthened. Data indicated that in December, consumer confidence reached an eight-month high as prices declined, the labour market remained robust, and 12-month inflation expectations dropped to 6.7%, the lowest level since September 2021.

The final US GDP number will be the primary topic of discussion today. It is anticipated that the number would be unchanged from the previous one, which would limit dollar volatility. According to Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, the USDINR (Spot) is likely to move sideways and quote between 82.40 and 83.05.

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