Natural gas prices fell 1.4% yesterday to settle at 197.6, as forecasts of milder weather over the next two weeks indicated less than normal heating demand. Meteorologists predict warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Lower 48 U.S. states through Nov. 1, which will reduce natural gas consumption. As a result, LSEG forecasts that average gas demand, including exports, will decrease from 98.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 96.4 bcfd next week. In addition, US natural gas production fell to 101.3 bcfd in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September, well below the record of 105.5 bcfd set in December 2023.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts natural gas production to decline slightly to 103.5 bcfd in 2024, while demand is expected to rise to 90.1 bcfd from exports and domestic consumption. The EIA projects that US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports will reach 12.1 bcft in 2024 and increase to 13.8 bcfd in 2025. Additionally, U.S. utilities stored 76 billion cubic feet of gas in the week ending Oct. 11 and 20. Below the market expectation of 78 bcf. That brought total natural gas reserves to 3.075 trillion cubic feet, up 3% from last year and 4.6% above the five-year average.
