According to trade and refining sources, India’s imports of Russian oil are expected to drop from multi-month highs in November to their lowest point in at least three years in December as refiners look for other ways to avoid violating Western sanctions.
Due to the conflict in Ukraine, the United States, the European Union, and Britain have increased sanctions against Moscow. Washington’s most recent actions target major Russian producers Rosneft & Lukoil. Russian oil buyers had until November 21 to close their transactions with the two companies. In addition, the EU has given itself until January 21 to reject fuel from refineries that handled Russian crude within 60 days of the bill of lading.
Indian state refiners are “extremely cautious” about receiving 600,000 to 650,000 barrels per day of Russian oil in December due to bank inspections following the most recent US sanctions.
According to preliminary statistics from Kpler, India is anticipated to acquire 1.87 million barrels per day of Russian crude this month. According to data from trade sources, it bought 1.65 million barrels per day of Russian oil in October, up 2% from September.
The majority of Indian refiners, including HPCL-Mittal Energy, Hindustan Petroleum Corp., and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals, have ceased purchasing Russian oil. Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Indian Oil Corp., both state-owned, have said that they will only purchase from non-sanctioned companies.
After other suppliers withdrew due to British and EU sanctions, Nayara Energy, which is partially owned by Rosneft, is now processing only Russian oil. According to Reliance Industries, loaded Russian oil cargoes were “precommitted” as of October 22. Any package arriving after November 20 will be processed at its refinery, which is designed to manufacture fuels for the regional market.
One of Reliance’s two refineries serves only export markets. Reliance is the operator of the largest refining complex in the world. As refiners took advantage of an arbitrage opportunity, the proportion of US oil in India’s oil imports increased to its highest level since June 2024 in October. Citing New Delhi’s purchase of Russian oil, Washington increased duties on Indian imports to 50%, putting pressure on India to purchase more US energy.
