Higher forecasted production of oilseeds globally

In the current marketing year through August, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicted a higher global production of oilseeds, but the prognosis of a 10.5 percent decline in sunflower seed in light of the Ukraine War may be cause for concern. According to the USDA, global production will total 645.61 million tonnes (mt), up from 604.61 mt in 2021­–22. Additionally, it predicted that global production of vegetable oils will reach 218.91 mt in 2022–23, up from 211.14 mt in 2021–22. Rapeseed and soybean production is anticipated to increase by 9.82% and 14.842%, respectively.

The USDA FAS (Foreign Agricultural Service) publication “Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade” predicts that the world will produce 390.53 mt of soyabean seeds in 2022–23 (up from 355.59 mt in 2021­–22) and 84.82 mt of rapeseed (73.86 mt). At 51.30 mt, the global production of sunflower seeds is anticipated to decline (57.32 mt). The invasion of Ukraine by Russia reportedly had a number of significant effects on the world market for oilseeds. Prior to the war, Ukraine was the world’s leading producer of sunflower seeds and exporter of sunflower seed-derived goods, accounting for over half of all commerce in 2020–21.

While Ukraine is expected to produce 10.10 mt of sunflower seeds in MY 2022–23 (compared to 17.50 mt in 2021–22), Russia is expected to produce 17 mt in MY 2022–­23. (15.57 mt). 20.11 mt of sunflower oil will be produced worldwide in 2022–2023 compared to 19.85 mt in 2021–2022, according to forecasts. Global soyabean seed output is anticipated to increase by 9.82 percent to 390.53 mt for MY 2022–23 from 355.59 mt for 2021–22. The predicted global production of soy oil for 2022–2023 is 61.87 mt, up from 59.32 mt in 2021–2022 According to the analysis, India will only import 3.35 mt of soy oil in 2022–2023 (down from 4.10 mt.

In comparison to 2021–2022, the research projects a 14.84 percent increase in worldwide rapeseed production, to 84.82 mt, for 2022–2023. It predicts that the production of rapeseed will increase to 17.21 mt in the European Union and to 19.5 mt in Canada in 2022–2023. India’s production is still estimated to be 11 mt, and there has been no change. Global palm oil production is anticipated to increase by 3.01 percent to 78.22 mt in 2022–2031, from 75.93 mt in 2021–2021. Indonesian palm oil production is projected to increase to 66.5 mt of this.

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