Cotton Gains During the Moderate Recession

Prices for cotton candy showed signs of life, finishing 0.45% higher at 57500 after recently declining due to a predicted decline in global consumption for the 2023–2024 season. The main causes of the decline in consumption are the reduced projections for Turkey, Indonesia, Pakistan, India, and Uzbekistan. In addition, higher beginning stocks, increased output, and decreased consumption are expected to result in 2.0 million bales higher world-ending stocks in 2023–2024.

The domestic cotton consumption estimates for the 2023–24 season, as maintained by the Cotton Association of India (CAI), are 311 lakh bales. The critical estimations were kept at 294.10 lakh bales, indicating that the supply of cotton will remain stable till the conclusion of the season. The 2022–2023 season saw Brazil reach a record high in cotton production, but weak demand and poor economic conditions put pressure on cotton prices globally.

Data show that the infection of pink bollworm in Indian cotton fields has decreased, from 30.62% in 2017–18 to 10.80% in 2022–2023 (Figure 1). But in cotton-growing regions all throughout the nation, the infection still exists. Brazil’s cotton exports to the world market rose by 12% in November over October, although they decreased by 5.5% year overall.

world cotton output is expected to exceed world consumption for the second year in a row, according to projections made by the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC). When open interest increased by a significant 51.72% to settle at 176 and prices increased by 260 rupees, it appears that new buyers are entering the market technically.

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