The 2025/26 US wheat market is expected to see tighter supplies, lower domestic use, higher exports, and reduced ending stocks. Production is cut by 2 million bushels due to smaller harvested areas, but better yields offset this.
Exports rise due to strong demand for Hard Red Winter wheat while ending stocks drop to 869 million bushels. Prices are trimmed to $5.30 per bushel due to softer corn prices. Globally, supplies decline due to reduced output in China, Brazil, and Argentina, partially offset by higher EU production.
Consumption dips, trade improves, and ending stocks fall to their lowest since 2015/16 at 260.1 million tons. Wheat market fundamentals suggest underlying support despite modest price softness.
