According to the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association’s (ISMA) initial advance estimate of output, India’s sugar production is predicted to increase by 16% to 34.35 million tonnes (MT) in the 2025–26 season (October–September) compared to the current season due to sufficient monsoon rains and a larger area.
The net sugar production for the current season is estimated to be 30.95 MT after deducting a 3.4 MT ethanol diversion, while the carryover stock of sweetener as of October 1, 2025, was 5 MT.
According to ISMA, the total sugarcane acreage in the 2025–26 season is expected to be approximately 5.73 million hectares (Mha), compared to 5.71 Mha in the 2024–25 season, indicating a slight increase over the previous year. This estimate is based on post-monsoon pan-India satellite data obtained in the third week of October 2025.
Maharashtra’s cane area for the 2025–2026 sugar season has grown from 1.38 million hectares to 1.47 million hectares, a 6% increase. But compared to last year, the cane area in Uttar Pradesh has decreased by about 3% to 2.25 Mha.
As excess supplies build up as a result of lower-than-expected sweetener diversion, the food ministry has stated that it is thinking about permitting sugar exports in the 2025–2026 marketing year. The government had allowed 1 MT of sugar export in the 2024-25 season.
The sugar industry recently voiced concern that the oil marketing companies’ allocation of only a “smaller” portion of the total requirement for ethanol from sugar-based feedstock for the supply year 2025–2026 would result in excess sweetener stocks, underutilized distilleries, and delayed payments to farmers in the current season.
For the 2025–2026 ESY, only 2890 million liters of ethanol, or 28% of the total requirement, have been allotted from sugar-based feedstocks, according to an ISMA statement. In contrast, 7610 million liters, or 72% of the total, have come from grain-based sources, including 4780 million liters from maize (45%) and 2830 million liters from rice (22%).
