Over the previous week, the rupee (INR) had no change. On Monday, it was valued at 82.3313 USD per unit. Good foreign inflows haven’t changed that. The net inflows during the previous week totaled more than $400 million, according to figures from the NSDL (National Securities Depository Ltd). This was aided by strong inflows into the equity market, which is now beginning to show signs of recovery.
The rupee is currently facing resistance at 82.15 and is trading around 82.33. It was unable to cross this barrier, but it also didn’t crumble because 82.50 was there to sustain it. The chances are in favour of the local currency remaining in this 82.15–82.50 range in the near future. The range can be expanded to 82–83. To start the next leg of its trend, the rupee needs to exit this wide range.
The price movement gives the dollar index a bearish bias even though it has generally been flat. The likelihood of a decline is strong at the current price of 101.85. Support is located at 101. The critical level of subsequent support is at 100. To shift the short-term trend in favour of positivity, the dollar index must rise over 105. The bias would be adverse until it maintains a price below 105, which might benefit the rupee.
Positive effects from anticipated FPI flows and negative effects from increased crude oil prices are likely to balance each other out. In the short run, this can effectively keep the rupee flat. This week, we anticipate the INR to remain in the range of 82.15 and 82.50..
