Palm oil prices are expected to decline as production recovers and demand weakens. In 2024, palm oil futures surged 20% due to supply disruptions in Indonesia and Malaysia. However, inventories are set to rise as buyers shift to cheaper alternatives like soybean and sunflower oils.
India’s palm oil imports could drop to a five-year low, further pressuring prices. Indonesia is increasing its biodiesel production, reducing exportable palm oil supplies. Despite this, rising output in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to keep prices under check in the coming months.
From April to November, Benchmark palm oil futures will trade between 3,600 and 4,100 ringgit per metric ton. Indonesia’s crude palm oil production is predicted to rise to 50 million metric tons in 2025, while Malaysia’s output is set to increase slightly to 19.5 million metric tons. India, the world’s largest palm oil importer, is expected to cut its purchases to 7.5 million metric tons in 2024/25, the lowest level in five years.
