Due to supply shortages and increased demand, aluminium prices are expected to remain stable in 2023, especially if China relaxes Covid19 curbs, according to analysts. The Fitch Group’s research division Fitch Solutions Industry Research and Country Risk predicts that prices will continue to rise but not to the highs of 2022. On the other side, Goldman Sachs anticipates a further increase in aluminium prices, while some analysts view the Shanghai smelter’s reduction in output and the destocking of Chinese ingot inventories as positive indications.
In contrast, worldwide demand is predicted to increase in 2023 as a result of China’s economic recovery and the relaxation of its Covid rules, with consumption rising by 4.7%. “We retain our $2,600 per tonne average 2023 aluminium price projection… The relaxation of Covid limitations in Mainland China, which is expected to increase demand, and ongoing supply constraints suggest that prices will stay elevated around present levels in 2023, according to Fitch Solutions.
Aluminum prices are predicted to average $3,125 in 2023 by U.S.-based global investment firm Goldman Sachs, up from its prior prediction of $2,563. For the following 12 months, it anticipates that the price of aluminium will reach $3,570. On Monday, the three-month contract price for aluminium on the London Metal Exchange (LME) increased by more than 2.5% to $2,457.50 a tonne. It had risen to $2,660, a six-month high, on January 25.
Aluminum prices are expected to be strong, according to Goldman Sachs, mostly due to “expectations of possible supply bottlenecks caused by higher demand in China and European countries.” Aluminum smelters in Europe continue to have difficulties, according to ING Think, a division of the Dutch multinational banking institution ING that does financial and economic analysis.
