Amid rising supply expectations, cotton prices dropped, tracking weakness in ICE prices

The price of cotton candy fell -0.81% yesterday, closing at 61,480. This weakness was reflected in the price of ICE (NYSE: ICE), which was caused by lower mill demand and higher supply forecasts. The updated Australian output estimate from Cotton Australia, which predicts a rise to at least 4.5 million bales due to excellent weather, is one factor driving this trend.

Furthermore, ending stocks and production for the 2023–2024 season are expected to be lower in the United States than in previous years; the reason for this decreased production is the Cotton Ginnings report from March 8. Ending stocks are expected to fall, indicating a tighter supply-demand balance, despite increasing predictions for world output, consumption, and trade.

Notably, China’s increased imports offset lower estimates for other countries, contributing to higher global trade volumes. However, the Southern India Mills’ Association (SIMA) has cautioned against panic buying, urging textile mills to exercise restraint amidst rising domestic cotton prices.

This sentiment is echoed by the Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption, which anticipates a reduction in export demand as domestic prices approach international levels. In the spot market, prices in Rajkot, a major trading hub, ended slightly lower at 29,572.45 Rupees, indicating a broader downward trend in cotton candy prices.

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