Forward-looking polls from the Reserve Bank of India indicate a general improvement in the economy. While a survey of 40 professional forecasters on macroeconomic indicators predicted GDP growth of 6.6-7.2% for 2022–2023, a survey on the outlook for services and infrastructure revealed an improvement in the general business environment, with respondents especially upbeat about employment and the availability of finance. With the current situation index (CSI) continuing on its recovery path for the ninth survey round since the historic low recorded in mid-2021, according to another survey that measures consumer confidence, the index improved further both for the current period and for the year ahead. It increased by 1.3 points in January 2023.
However, compared to the last poll round, the Households’ Inflation Expectations Survey anticipates greater price pressures for durable household goods and the cost of housing during the next three months. According to the poll, Q4 of 2022–23 should see headline CPI inflation (yoy) at 5.7%; following that, it should moderate to 4.7% by Q1 of 2023–24. It is anticipated to stay in the region of 55.2% for the ensuing two quarters. Participants in the survey included experts such as Abhishek Gupta from Bloomberg Economics, Aditi Nayar from ICRA, Debopam Chaudhuri from Paramal Enterprise, Madan Sabnavis from the Bank of Baroda, Manasi Swamy from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, and Upasna Bhardwaj from Kotak Mahindra Bank.
According to the Services and Infrastructure Outlook Survey, which received responses from 1,091 organisations, both full-time and part-time employment opportunities in the services sector are expected to increase. Service organisations polled for increased growth in selling prices and profit margins during Q4 of 2022–23 anticipate similar cost pressures on a sequential basis.
