Cold weather forecasts have led to a 4.52% increase in natural gas prices, with severe cold likely to push daily gas demand to a new high, with LSEG estimating 172.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on January 21, surpassing the previous record of 168.4 bcfd. Cold weather has already affected production, and historically, similar freezes have led to severe production declines, such as 20.4 bcfd during the February 2021 cold wave.
The largest declines have been in the South Central, Midwest and East. Stockpiles are now 3.4% lower than last year, bringing the surplus to 2.5% above the five-year average. According to the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, as LNG exports expand, U.S. dry gas production is expected to reach a record high of 104.5 bcfd in 2025 and 107.2 bcfd in 2026.
