With import levels tracking at 1.62 million barrels per day in October, up from 1.61 mbd in September, Russia continued to be India’s top supplier of crude oil, according to statistics from Kpler. However, compared to 1.75 mbd in October 2024, Russian oil imports fell 8% annually.
Saudi Arabia and Iraq emerged as India’s two main suppliers of crude oil, with Saudi Arabia importing 669,000 barrels per day in October and Iraq sending 826,000 barrels per day. The fresh US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil mark a substantial escalation and are poised to change India’s crude import strategy, as per analysts.
The main conclusion, though, is that US crude imports have increased significantly, reaching their highest level since March 2021. Compared to a year-to-date average of about 300,000 bpd, US imports hit 568,000 bpd in October and are predicted to average 450,000–500,000 bpd in November.
Since these sanctions effectively transform the Russian oil molecule at least from these two entities into a sanctioned commodity, the market dynamic will move from influence to enforcement, causing short-term damage for India, which imports almost 90% of its crude needs.
Arrivals of Russian oil surged ahead of schedule when the sanctions went into effect on November 21, 2025, and no refiner other than Nayara is anticipated to import from sanctioned suppliers after that date.
As refiners steer clear of possible OFAC-related vulnerability, Russian crude flows are anticipated to stay between 1.6 and 1.8 mbd until November 21 before declining. While Indian refiners will continue sourcing Russian grades via unsanctioned middlemen, they are expected to act with greater caution.
Indian refiners are anticipated to boost their purchases from the Middle East, Brazil, Latin America, West Africa, Canada, and the US in order to make up for the decrease in direct Russian shipments. Deepening US-India energy links are highlighted by the US’s already increasing percentage of India’s crude basket, which also fits with India’s objective to strike a balance between supply security, economics, and geopolitics.
