The Coffee Board reduced its most recent post-monsoon estimate of the amount of the coffee crop for the 2022–23 season (October 2022–September 2023) to 3.6 lakh tonnes (lt). This is roughly 8.36% less than its previous projections of a record 3.93 lt. This is mostly because excessive monsoon rains in Karnataka, the State with the highest coffee production, have a negative influence on the crop. The entire output for 2022–2023, though, is expected to be greater than the final projections of 3.42 lt for 2021–2022.

The post-monsoon forecasts predict that arabica production will be 1.01 lakh tonnes, which is roughly 13% less than the post-blossom forecasts of 1.164 lakh tonnes. Similar to this, robusta production is anticipated to be 6.50 percent lower than the original estimate of 2.77 lakh tonnes, at 2.59 lakh tonnes. Unseasonal rains affected the harvest in certain important Karnataka growing regions, according to Coffee Board Secretary and CEO K G Jagadeesha, therefore the final estimates may need to be revised further.

Arabica production in Karnataka, which was previously estimated as 86,150 tonnes, may have decreased by 15% to 72,945 tonnes. Robusta production in Karnataka is anticipated to decrease by 9% to 1.81 lt (1.99 lt). Karnataka’s total output is estimated to be 2.54 lt, down roughly 11%. (2.85 lt). At 37,875 tonnes (down from 43,225 tonnes), 19,220 tonnes (down from 22,725 tonnes), and 15,850 tonnes, respectively, in Chikmagalur, Kodagu, and Hassan, respectively, the output of Arabica is expected to decrease by 12 percent, 15 percent, and 21 percent (20,200 tonnes).

Similar to this, robusta is seen declining by 11% in Chikmagalur at 47,280 tonnes (52,955 tonnes), 8% in Kodagu at 1.13 lt (1.22 lt), and 10% in Hassan at 20,950 tonnes (23,325 tonnes). The arabica harvest in Kerala is estimated to be roughly 3% lower than the initial estimate at 2,000 tonnes (2,060 tonnes), and the robusta crop is slightly lower at 71,750 tonnes (72,275 tonnes). In Tamil Nadu, arabica production is down 4.15 percent at 13,850 tonnes (down from 14,450 tonnes), and robusta production is down slightly at 5,490 tonnes (down from 5,590 tonnes).

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