GECF firmly believes that natural gas, through its abundant, affordable, and clean hydrocarbons, plays a key role in energy conversion, while supporting progress in many sustainable development dimensions, including the protection of ecosystems, human health, and the economy.
The Gas Exporting Countries (GECF), a government-coalition partnership of 19 of the world’s leading gas producers, represents 70% of the proven natural gas reserves, 52% of the gas pipeline, and 51% of international LNG exports. Echoing the Energy Company (IEA)’s latest report ‘Net-Zero by 2050’.
“Indeed, our member states are already proving their multiple commitment to the environmental workforce by reducing emissions from their operations, and they hold shares to accelerate decarbonization wherever possible,” the GECF said on Thursday
The GECF’s in-house reference case (RCS) represents a realistic approach when it comes to governments – including some energy-poor countries – increasing their ambitions from current nationally defined contributions (NDCs) and net-zero pledges.
In formulating its long-term assumptions based on the practical evaluation of the implementation of policies and the technologies that support carbon mitigation, the RCS takes into account the adopted and declared national energy policies.
According to the latest estimates by the GECF RCS, global primary energy demand is expected to increase by 24% over the next three decades, driven by overall economic and population growth drivers.
The only approach to achieving energy market stability, responsible and inclusive economic growth, and sustainable development goals is to consider natural gas as a target fuel, which will always be an important component in achieving a low carbon energy system.
The structure of the energy mix is becoming more diversified due to renewable expansion. However, fossil fuels are predicted to dominate, at 71% by 2050.
According to the latest GECF estimates, natural gas will become the leading source of global energy composition by the middle of the century, increasing its share from 23% to 28% today.
GECF believes in the right of countries, especially developing economies, to access abundant, affordable, and clean energy resources.
“We do not restrict the streaming of upstream development and investment resources towards costly decarbonization options and technologies, some of which have not yet been proven.
“Currently, it is widely recognized that net-zero paths rely on technologies that are not currently available on the market. This technological challenge is exacerbated when considering developing countries that do not have access to technologies and financial resources.”
Withdrawal from investment in upstream gas resources could significantly affect the security of supply and prevent countries from accessing competitive and clean energy sources such as natural gas, which is compatible with sustainable development.
Before 2020, historic upstream investment between 2010 and 2019 was $ 571 billion worldwide, representing a 79% largest aggregation increase compared to investment volume in the 2000s.
In addition, 2 472 billion was invested in gas transport and trade infrastructure from 2010 to 2019, an increase of 67% compared to the investment made between 2000 and 2009.
LNG consumption is expected in the coming decades due to population growth, growing economic prosperity in developing countries (e.g., China and India), favorable government regulations, and measures to reduce air pollution and remove coal.
Regardless of any financial structure changes due to market ambiguity, the amount of investment is expected to grow over the long term.
Total gas investment, including upstream and medium operations, is estimated to reach approximately t 10tn between 2020 and 2050, representing a combined annual growth of 1.26% from a total of 8 258bn in 2020 to 375bn in 2050.