Natural Gas is getting support at 310.7 and below same could see a test of 304 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 325.9, a move above could see prices testing 334.4.
Natural Gas on MCX settled down 1.98% at 317.4 on forecasts for warmer weather than previously expected and a return to record production but rose by the most in a month in nine years on concerns stockpiles were too low going into the cold winter months.
Warmer temperatures in mid December should enable utilities to pull less gas than normal from storage in coming weeks, allowing the vast 19 percent stockpile deficit to shrink.
That view started to gain traction on Thursday after utilities pulled less gas than expected from inventories last week even though the weather was extremely cold. Some traders blamed that small withdrawal on unusually low demand due to the U.S.
Thanksgiving holiday. Since the middle of November, the combination of cold forecasts and low stockpiles sent futures prices and volatility to their highest in years.
The latest weather forecast called for warmer-than-normal weather over the weekend, followed by colder-than-normal next week before temperatures turn warmer than normal again in the middle of December.
Those weather changes caused Refinitiv to cut its total degree day (TDD) forecast for the Lower 48 U.S. states to 391 for the next two weeks from 400 on Thursday. That is near normal for this time of year.
Gas output in the Lower 48 states averaged a record high 87.3 bcfd over the past 30 days. On a daily basis production was expected to rise to an all-time high of 88.5 bcfd on Friday, topping the prior high of 88.2 bcfd, according to Refinitiv data.
–Natural Gas trading range for the day is 304-334.4.
–Natural Gas prices dropped on forecasts for warmer weather than previously expected and a return to record production
–Warmer temperatures in mid December should enable utilities to pull less gas than normal from storage in coming weeks.
–The latest weather forecast called for warmer-than-normal weather over the weekend, followed by colder-than-normal next week.