NCDEX Soyabean under long liquidation

Soyabean market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by 0.32% to settled at 210010 while prices down 38 rupees.

Now NCDEX Soyabean is getting support at 3366 and below same could see a test of 3342 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3423, a move above could see prices testing 3456.

Soyabean on NCDEX settled down 1.11% at 3389 due to lack of adequate support from millers in spot due to disparity in crushing. Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) has projected an increase of 70% in soymeal exports during 2081-19 on expectations of fresh demand from China.

Soybean arrivals across the country declined further to 730,000 tons from 750,000 bags a day earlier China imported 6.92 million tons of soybean as reported by Chinese customs 18% high y-o-y but 14% down m-o-m. China has stockpiled Soybean as Brazil moves into lean season and as China is reluctant to buy Chinese soybean, China is trying to hedge its stock position.

According to USDA’s Nov WASDE report, World end stocks has been upward revised to 112 million tons as against 110 million tons in Oct WASDE report. India’s 2018-19 soybean output is seen 22.5% higher at 13.46 million tons, according to farm ministry data.

Industry body, SOPA, projected an increase of nearly 38% on year at 11.48 million tons in soybean output.India’s soyameal exports during the oil year 2017-18 (ending September 2018) were down 15 per cent at around 1.7 million tonnes (mt) from the previous year’s 2 mt on high domestic prices.

As per SOPA, India’s soymeal exports in 2018/19 could jump as much as 70% from a year ago, buoyed by expected purchases from the world’s biggest soybean buyer China.

Trading Ideas:
–Soyabean trading range for the day is 3342-3456.
–Soyabean dropped due to lack of adequate support from millers in spot due to disparity in crushing.
–According to senior government officials, China is likely to open its doors to soybean from India.
–NCDEX accredited warehouses soyabean stocks gained by 1001 tonnes to 101473 tonnes.
–At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  23 Rupees to 3408 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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