Natural Gas likely to trade in a range between 266.7-328.9

Natural Gas is getting support at 282.3 and below same could see a test of 266.7 levels and resistance is now likely to be seen at 313.4, a move above could see prices testing 328.9.

Natural Gas on MCX settled up 0.74% at 297.9 after swinging up and down by as much as 20 percent in the week on changes in weather forecasts for the rest of November and worries about the small amount of fuel in storage heading into the cold winter months.

This extremely volatile trade is likely to continue going forward as a sizable supply deficit keeps the market highly responsive to any significant shifts in the short-term weather forecasts. The market was more focused on the latest colder forecasts for next week than warmer forecasts for the last week of November.

With forecasts for more cold next week and less cold during the last week of November, projected total degree days (TDDs) in the lower 48 U.S. states would reach 362 over the next two weeks, about the same as forecasted. The latest forecast points to continued colder-than-normal weather through the end of the month since TDDs are usually only reach 320 during this time of year.

Gas output in the lower 48 states averaged a record high 87.1 bcfd over the past 30 days. On a daily basis, however, production was just 86.9 bcfd, below the all-time high of 88.0 bcfd hit on Oct. 31, according to data. Utilities likely pulled a bigger-than-normal 98 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the extremely cold week ended Nov. 16.

That compares with declines of 42 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average withdrawal of 25 bcf for the period.

Trading Ideas:
–Natural Gas trading range for the day is 266.7-328.9.
–Natural Gas gained on changes in weather forecasts for the rest of November and worries about the small amount of fuel in storage heading into the cold winter months.
–The market was more focused on the latest colder forecasts for next week than warmer forecasts for the last week of November.
–Gas output in the lower 48 states averaged a record high 87.1 bcfd over the past 30 days.

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